【新闻摘要】
特朗普的商业头脑果然不同凡响！这次他把目光投向了刚果（金）的矿产宝藏，准备用"和平协议"当敲门砖。这位美国前总统一边高调宣称要终结非洲持续30年的冲突，一边盘算着怎么从中国的"矿产垄断"中分一杯羹。有趣的是，卡塔尔也来凑热闹，正在卢旺达建新机场——看来这场"和平生意"的竞标者还真不少。刚果（金）人民可能很快就会发现：他们的矿产就像相亲市场上的优质对象，被各方势力争相"介绍对象"，只是不知道最后谁能真正"抱得美人归"。
How Trump wants the US to cash in on mineral-rich DR Congo's peace deal
特朗普如何借刚果（金）和平协议谋取矿产利益
Getty Images
盖蒂图片社
The Trump administration is spearheading an ambitious, but controversial, peace initiative aimed at ending the long-running conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo that has also drawn in neighbouring Rwanda.
特朗普政府正主导一项雄心勃勃但争议性的和平倡议，旨在结束刚果民主共和国东部长期冲突（邻国卢旺达也卷入其中）
Its mediation efforts come as no surprise, as DR Congo - a nation in the heart of Africa - is endowed with the mineral wealth that the US requires to power the IT, and now AI, revolutions, much of which is currently going to China.
调解行动并不意外，因为位于非洲心脏地带的刚果（金）拥有美国IT和AI革命所需的矿产资源，而目前大部分资源流向中国
US President Donald Trump is expected to host the leaders of DR Congo and Rwanda - Félix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame - in the coming weeks to seal a peace agreement that he has hailed as a"glorious triumph", hoping to back it up with deals that will boost US investment in the region.
预计特朗普将在未来几周主持刚果（金）与卢旺达领导人会晤，签署被他称为"辉煌胜利"的和平协议，并希望通过商业协议促进美国在该地区投资
US-based World Peace Foundation executive director Prof Alex de Waal told the BBC that the Trump administration was promoting"a new model of peace-making, combining a populist performance with commercial deal-making".
世界和平基金会执行主任指出，特朗普政府正在推行"将民粹表演与商业交易结合的新型调停模式"
"Trump has done this in Ukraine also. He wants to get the glory to boost his own political standing, and to secure minerals that are in America's interests," Prof De Waal said.
"特朗普在乌克兰也这样做，既想获取政治资本，又要确保美国利益所需的矿产资源"
However, he noted that"in DR Congo, China has already snapped up many of the minerals so the US is playing catch-up".
但他指出"在刚果（金），中国已抢占大量矿产资源，美国正在追赶"
He said that up to now US companies had been cautious about investing in DR Congo because of safety concerns and the"moral hazard" of dealing in so-called"blood minerals" - minerals financing rebellions - but this could change as the Trump administration implemented its peace model.
他表示美国企业因安全顾虑和"血矿"道德风险而谨慎投资，但特朗普的和平模式可能改变这一局面
Prof De Waal said this could also happen in other conflict-hit states like Sudan, where the Trump administration - along with Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt - was expected to get involved in mediation efforts after previous initiatives failed.
这种模式可能复制到苏丹等其他冲突国家，特朗普政府将与沙特等阿拉伯国家共同介入调解
He added that the Trump administration's peace model could not be dismissed out of hand, especially if it stops fighting that has killed thousands of people and displaced millions of others in conflicts that have raged for more than 30 years in eastern DR Congo.
他指出特朗普的调停模式不应被全盘否定，尤其若能结束造成数十万人伤亡的30年冲突
"Trump can get the different sides to talk, and shake things up," Prof De Waal said.
"特朗普能让各方坐到谈判桌前打破僵局"
But Prof Hanri Mostert, an academic on mineral law at the University of Cape Town, South Africa, told the BBC that DR Congo"risked compromising sovereignty over its minerals".
但开普敦大学矿产法专家警告刚果（金）"可能丧失矿产主权"
DR Congo could find itself locked into deals for years, in exchange for vague guarantees of security, she said.
她表示刚果（金）可能被迫签订长期协议，仅换取模糊的安全承诺
This was reminiscent of the"resource-bartering" deals pursued by China and Russia in numerous African states, Prof Mostert added.
这让人联想到中俄在非洲多国推行的"资源置换"模式
She cited as an example Angola, where China built infrastructure in exchange for oil.
她以安哥拉为例，中国通过基建换取石油
"Even when oil prices went up, Angola couldn't get more value for it," Prof Mostert said.
"即使油价上涨，安哥拉也无法获得更多收益"
Getty Images China has improved the rail network in Angola in exchange for access to the country's oil
盖蒂图片社：中国通过改善安哥拉铁路网换取石油开采权
The BBC's Paul Njie reports from inside rebel-held Goma
BBC记者在叛军控制的戈马发回报道
Prof Jason Stearns, a Canada-based political scientist who specialises in the region, told the BBC that Qatar, like other oil-rich Gulf states, was expanding into Africa"to project power, influence, but also to seek economic opportunities".
地区问题专家指出，卡塔尔与其他海湾国家一样在非洲拓展"势力范围并寻求商机"
He added that it became involved in mediation efforts at the request of Rwanda, which perceived the US as being in favour of DR Congo, something Washington denies.
卡塔尔应卢旺达请求介入调解，因卢方认为美国偏袒刚果（金）（美方否认）
Prof Stearns said Qatar had"massive" economic interests in Rwanda, pointing out that the Gulf state was building a new multi-billion dollar airport in Kigali and was in talks to acquire a 49% stake in the national airline.
他指出卡塔尔在卢旺达有重大经济利益，正投资数十亿美元建设新机场并计划收购国家航空49%股份
He explained that the US and Qatar were working closely together, but it was less than ideal to have two processes because"you don't want to end up in a situation where there is a peace deal between DR Congo and Rwanda, but Rwanda then says: 'We don't control the M23', and the M23 continues escalating [the conflict] in eastern DR Congo".
美卡合作存在隐患，可能出现"刚卢签署和平协议但M23叛军仍继续作乱"的局面
"So it's very important that the two processes are tightly tied to each other since the actors are so closely linked," Prof Stearns added.
"因各方关联密切，两个调解进程必须紧密配合"
Under the peace deal, DR Congo and Rwanda agreed to launch a"security co-ordination mechanism" within 30 days of the 27 June deal.
根据协议，刚果（金）与卢旺达同意在6月27日后30天内启动"安全协调机制"
Mr Verelst said that a ceasefire was expected to take effect on Tuesday, followed by the DR Congo government and the M23 signing a comprehensive peace agreement by 18 August, building on the"declaration of principles" they had already negotiated.
停火协议预计周二生效，刚果（金）政府与M23将在8月18日前签署全面和平协议
DR Congo-based International Crisis Group (ICG) think-tank analyst Onesphore Sematumba said the US and Qatar were getting deals struck in"record time" since Trump's rise to the US presidency in January.
国际危机组织分析师指出，特朗普上任后美卡以"创纪录速度"促成协议
Mr Sematumba said their intervention came after various Africa-led mediation efforts had"failed to get the parties to sign even a single document" since 2022.
非洲主导的调解自2022年来"未能促成任何文件签署"
"Regional players do not have the same leverage to influence Kigali and Kinshasa," he added.
"地区力量缺乏影响两国政府的同等筹码"
"But between the signing of an agreement and the achievement of peace, the road can be long, and it will be long in this case," Mr Sematumba warned.
"从签署协议到实现和平可能道阻且长"
One key question is whether the M23 will give up the territory under its control, as demanded by Tshisekedi's government.
关键问题是M23是否会如政府要求放弃控制区
Mr Sematumba said the M23 had agreed to"state authority" being established across DR Congo, however, the rebels have also said they would not give up a"single centimetre" of land.
M23虽同意"国家权威"，但声称"寸土不让"
"Personally, I think the transition should be gradual, and for certain areas there should be some kind of co-management. But everything will depend on the tact of the mediators, and their ability to break the ice," Mr Sematumba added.
过渡应循序渐进，部分区域可实行共管，但取决于调解方的智慧
He said the success of the peace initiative also hinged on what the agreement called the"lifting of defensive measures" by Rwanda, widely interpreted to mean the withdrawal of its troops from eastern DR Congo.
协议成功还取决于卢旺达是否从刚果（金）东部撤军
While Rwanda denies backing the M23, it says it wants to wipe out the FDLR, a militia born from those who carried out the 1994 genocide in Rwanda and then fled into DR Congo.
卢旺达否认支持M23，称其目标是消灭1994年大屠杀后逃往刚果（金）的武装组织
Rwanda has accused the Congolese army of working with the FDLR.
卢方指责刚果（金）军队与该组织合作
The peace deal spells out that the FDLR should be"neutralised", however this has been attempted several times over the past three decades.
协议要求"消灭"该组织，但过去30年多次尝试未果
"For Rwanda, the neutralisation of the FDLR is a precondition for the withdrawal of its forces, while DR Congo says the two must be achieved simultaneously," Mr Sematumba pointed out, saying that mediators would have to find a solution as these issues had led to the failure of previous peace initiatives.
卢方要求先消灭武装再撤军，刚方要求同步进行，这是以往调停失败的主因
"Just by following the different interpretations given by the parties to the texts signed, you can sense all the difficulties that lie ahead," Mr Sematumba said.
各方对协议文本的不同解读预示着前路艰难
Prof Mostert agreed that diplomacy on its own could not achieve peace, and a broader initiative was needed.
专家认同仅靠外交无法实现和平，需要更全面方案
"You build peace by transforming pain. That takes more than diplomacy. It takes dialogue, decentralised participation and dignifying people's experiences," she said.
"需要通过对话、基层参与和尊重民众经历来化解伤痛"
"That's why I believe it is important that the dealmakers and the lawmakers remain aware of historical traumas, including decades of resource exploitation," Prof Mostert added.
"调解者必须意识到包括资源掠夺在内的历史创伤"
So if he wants the peace to hold for long enough for US companies to profit, Donald Trump may have to keep the pressure on for some time to come.
若想确保美国企业长期获利，特朗普需持续施加压力
Getty Images/BBC
盖蒂图片社/BBC
