【新闻麻辣烫】
马克龙又在国际舞台上演"外交赌局"！法国高调宣布将在9月联大承认巴勒斯坦国，却把烫手山芋扔给了英国首相斯塔默——"跟不跟注？"这场政治德州扑克中，法国押注英国会当"跟风小弟"，但伦敦方面却端着茶杯打太极："先停火再谈承认"。更精彩的是，英国议会内部已经吵翻天，卫生大臣竟偷偷"抢跑"内阁统一口径，气得白厅官员直瞪眼。眼看法国要拉英国组"承认者联盟"，美国以色列在旁虎视眈眈，这场外交豪赌最终是"单车变摩托"还是"赔了夫人又折兵"？让我们拭目以待...(背景音请自行脑补《赌神》BGM)
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**French pledge to recognise Palestine is a gamble - so will Starmer follow suit?**
法国承认巴勒斯坦国承诺是场赌博——斯塔默会跟进吗？
Crucially, France is not recognising a Palestinian state now - it will do so, says Macron, at the United Nations General Assembly in September.
关键在于法国并非立即承认——马克龙表示将在9月联合国大会上采取行动。
They were planning to make an announcement some weeks ago but were forced to delay after Israel and the US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities.
原计划数周前宣布，但因美以袭击伊朗核设施被迫推迟。
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The French have been itching to take this step for some time.
法国对此筹谋已久。
The announcement by President Emmanuel Macron of his intention to recognise Palestinian statehood puts huge pressure on Sir Keir Starmer to follow suit.
马克龙宣布承认巴勒斯坦国的意图给斯塔默带来巨大跟进压力。
What the French hope is that their announcement will in the meantime generate diplomatic momentum and encourage other nations to join them.
法国希望该声明能产生外交动能，鼓励其他国家加入。
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The French president likes to make bold, dramatic plays on the international stage. But it is a gamble.
这位法国总统热衷在国际舞台展现大胆戏剧性举动，但这是场赌博。
In particular, he is relying on the UK to follow his lead. When Macron visited Parliament a few weeks ago, he told MPs and peers that"working together to recognise the state of Palestine and to initiate this political moment is the only path to peace".
他特别寄望英国跟进。几周前马克龙访英时曾对议员们表示："共同承认巴勒斯坦国并开启这一政治时刻是唯一和平路径"。
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One senior French diplomat told me a few days ago that if the UK acted together with France it would convince other countries to join"because two parent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) shows we mean business".
法国高级外交官日前透露，若英法联合行动将说服他国加入——"因为两个联合国安理会常任理事国表明我们是动真格的"。
The US, China and Russia are the other permanent members on the UNSC, with ten other countries elected for two-year terms.
美中俄是安理会另三个常任理事国，还有十个非常任理事国。
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They added:"The best contribution that France and the UK can bring is to restart the process by bringing all stakeholders around the table, making commitments to the state of Palestine and the security of Israel. We have this power, this opportunity together to restart this process."
他们补充道："英法最佳贡献是让所有利益相关方回到谈判桌，承诺保障巴勒斯坦建国与以色列安全，重启进程。我们具备这种力量与机遇。"
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The problem is that the British prime minister has thus far been reluctant to take this step in recognising a Palestinian state.
问题在于英国首相迄今不愿迈出承认这一步。
That, in part, reflects traditional British policy. The UK has long argued that the act of recognising a Palestinian state should not be wasted on what some see as gesture politics.
这部分反映英国传统政策——长期以来认为承认巴勒斯坦国不应浪费在"象征性政治"上。
One senior source questioned what impact the French decision would have apart from making Macron feel better.
有高层质疑法国决定除让马克龙自我感觉良好外有何实效。
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Instead, officials argue this diplomatic card should be used productively to drive momentum in a long-term political settlement; a lever with which to get a deal over the line.
官员们主张应有效利用这张外交牌推动长期政治解决，作为达成协议的杠杆。
In other words, recognition was part of the end game. Such is the sensitivity about this issue that David Cameron, as foreign secretary, ruffled feathers last year when he even suggested recognition could be brought forward as part of a process and not the final move.
换言之承认应是终局环节。去年外交大臣卡梅伦仅建议将其作为进程环节就引发争议，足见敏感性。
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But the French decision suggests they now believe recognition should not be even a stage in a diplomatic sequence but a trigger to open it all up, a shock to the status quo demanded by continued Israeli intransigence and the scale of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
但法国决定显示他们认为承认应是打破现状的触发器，而非外交序列环节——以应对以色列顽固立场和加沙人道危机。
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The UK has also been cautious traditionally about recognising a Palestinian state for fear of upsetting its allies, the US and Israel, which are firmly opposed to such an idea, believing it to be, in their view, a reward for terrorism.
英国传统上亦谨慎对待承认巴勒斯坦国，担心激怒坚决反对的美以盟友——他们认为这是对恐怖主义的奖励。
The UK has also been reluctant to invest too much support in an unreformed Palestinian Authority.
英国也不愿过度支持未改革的巴勒斯坦权力机构。
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So for now the UK has been stalling for time. On Thursday night, the prime minister issued a statement saying:"We are clear that statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people. A ceasefire will put us on a path to the recognition of a Palestinian state and a two-state solution which guarantees peace and security for Palestinians and Israelis."
因此英国目前采取拖延策略。首相周四声明称："我们明确建国是巴勒斯坦人民不可剥夺的权利。停火将开启承认巴勒斯坦国与两国方案之路。"
In other words, there has to be at the very least a ceasefire before recognition becomes possible.
换言之承认至少需以停火为前提。
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Foreign Secretary David Lammy told MPs on the International Development committee last week that recognition had to be part of a process towards secure a two-state solution - a political settlement based on two separate states that protect the rights of Palestinians and the security of Israelis.
外交大臣拉米上周对国际发展委员会表示，承认必须是实现两国方案进程的部分——该方案基于保障巴勒斯坦权利与以色列安全的两个独立国家。
"No country has a veto on our decisions," he said."When and how to recognise is our decision. I am simply making the point that the act of recognition does not get you two states; it is a symbolic act."
"没有国家能否决我们的决定，"他说，"承认时机与方式由我们决定。我只是强调承认本身不能实现两国方案，这是象征性举动。"
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The problem is that, according to UK officials, this decision has moved from the diplomatic sphere to the political. In other words, the government is now under huge pressure from its MPs to act.
问题在于据英国官员称，该决定已从外交领域转向政治领域——政府正承受议员们的巨大行动压力。
Whenever ministers defend the status quo in the House of Commons, they are assailed on all sides by MPs calling for recognition.
每当大臣们在下议院辩护现状，就会遭到各方议员要求承认的围攻。
Joint letters to Downing Street are being written by retired diplomats and coalitions of MPs. The Foreign Affairs Committee has also issued a report backing recognition.
退休外交官与议员联盟正联名致信唐宁街，外交事务委员会也发布报告支持承认。
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Even Cabinet ministers are joining in. Earlier this week, Health Secretary Wes Streeting told MPs he hoped that the international community would"recognise the state of Palestine while there is a state of Palestine left to recognise".
甚至内阁大臣也参与其中。本周卫生大臣斯特里廷称希望国际社会"在还有巴勒斯坦国可承认时予以承认"。
That raised eyebrows in Whitehall because the formulation strayed firmly outside the official Cabinet position that recognition should come only"at the point of maximum impact".
这令白厅侧目，因其偏离了内阁"应在最大影响力时刻承认"的官方立场。
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So all eyes are now on what the British government decides. If it fails to follow the French lead, it may well risk votes and rebellions in Parliament.
因此各方聚焦英国政府决定。若不跟进法国，可能面临议会投票失利与反叛。
One official suggested to me this could well follow welfare reform as the next big issue to trigger a Labour backbench revolt.
有官员透露这可能继福利改革后成为触发工党后排议员反抗的下个议题。
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The risk is that, alternately, Britain follows France begrudgingly and is dragged into recognition without any significant diplomatic gain. It will have played a one-time card to little avail.
另一风险是英国勉强跟进法国，在无实质外交收益情况下被拖入承认，如同打出张收效甚微的一次性牌。
More than 140 countries around the world have already recognised Palestine as a state. Last year, Ireland, Spain, Norway and Slovenia joined them, with minimal impact.
全球140多国已承认巴勒斯坦国。去年爱尔兰、西班牙、挪威和斯洛文尼亚的加入影响甚微。
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Future political declarations about Palestinian statehood may well be significant. But how much they change the reality in the short term for people on the ground in Gaza is an open question.
未来政治承认声明或许意义重大，但短期内对加沙民众现实的改变程度仍是未知数。
