生成中...【新闻趣读】德州上演"政治大逃亡"！50多名民主党议员连夜跑路，共和党州长气得要发"通缉令"——每天罚款500美元，还要开除公职！这场关于选区重划的猫鼠游戏，直接关系到明年国会控制权归属。特朗普在背后疯狂打call，就想多划出5个共和党席位。民主党人则警告：要是德州这么玩，加州、纽约马上开启"选区重划军备竞赛"！看来美国政坛的潜规则是：打不过就逃跑，逃不掉就改地图？（友情提示：观看本剧请备好美国地图和计算器，随时测算"政治几何学"）
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How a Texas showdown could reshape Congress - and Trump's presidency
德州对决如何重塑国会格局与特朗普总统任期
8 hours ago Share Save Anthony Zurcher North America correspondent Share Save
8小时前 分享 保存 北美记者安东尼·祖彻 分享 保存
Watch: Texas Speaker plans civil arrest warrants against absent Democrats
视频：德州议长计划对缺席民主党人签发民事逮捕令
Dozens of Texas Democrats have secretly left the state in a dramatic effort to stop Republicans from holding a vote that could determine the balance of power in the US Congress. Republican Governor Greg Abbot has issued orders that they be arrested on sight - and fined $500 a day. He has also threatened to expel them from office. The Democrats left because at least two-thirds of the 150-member legislative body must be present to proceed with a vote on re-drawing Texas's electoral map. The plan would create five more Republican-leaning seats in the US House of Representatives. This high stakes battle may seem both bizarre and confusing – but it is one that could spread to other states in advance of next year's national midterm elections. At its heart, it's a bare-knuckle fight over political power, who can wield it most effectively and who can keep it.
数十名德州民主党议员秘密逃离本州，以阻止共和党进行可能改变国会权力平衡的投票。共和党州长格雷格·阿博特已下令见到他们就逮捕——并每天罚款500美元，还威胁要开除公职。民主党人出走是因为重划德州选举地图的投票需要150人议会至少三分之二出席。该计划将在美国众议院新增5个倾向共和党的席位。这场高风险对决看似荒诞，却可能蔓延至其他州，影响明年中期选举。本质上，这是场关于政治权力的赤膊争斗。
Why does Trump want redistricting?
特朗普为何热衷选区重划？
The US House of Representatives is made up of 435 legislators who are elected every two years. They represent districts with boundaries determined in processes set by their state governments. Who draws the lines and how can go a long way in shaping the ideological tilt of the district and the likelihood that it elects a Democrat or a Republican. At the moment, the House rests on a knife edge with 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats. There are four vacancies likely to be filled by three Democrats and one Republican in special elections later this year. It wouldn't take much of a shift in the political winds for Democrats to take back control of the House of Representatives in next year's midterm elections. And the party that controls the lower chamber of Congress has powers that extend far beyond simply setting the legislative agenda for the next two years, as important as that may be. House leaders can launch sweeping investigations of presidential actions, as Democrats did in the second half of Donald Trump's first term and Republicans did in Joe Biden's final two years. They can also dig in on policy issues and trigger government shutdowns. They can even vote to impeach a president, as Democrats did in December 2019 and Republicans contemplated during Biden's presidency. Trump appears focused on taking steps to improve his odds of avoiding a similar fate in his second term. He is reportedly fixated on the midterm races and encouraging Texas lawmakers to draw new congressional maps that could increase the likelihood of Republicans winning more House seats from there.
美国众议院435名议员每两年选举一次，选区边界由州政府划定。划界方式直接影响选区意识形态倾向和政党胜选概率。目前众议院共和党219席对民主党212席，今年补选后可能变成216:213。民主党只需微弱优势就能在明年中期选举夺回控制权。掌控众议院的政党不仅能设定立法议程，还能调查总统（如民主党调查特朗普、共和党调查拜登）、制造政府停摆，甚至发起弹劾（如民主党2019年弹劾特朗普）。特朗普正全力避免第二任期重蹈覆辙，据报他紧盯中期选举，敦促德州重划选区以增加共和党席位。
How does redistricting usually work?
选区重划如何运作？
Watch: What is gerrymandering? We use gummy bears to explain
视频：用橡皮糖解释"杰利蝾螈"（不公正划分选区）
District lines are typically redrawn every 10 years, after a national census, to reflect shifts in the population within and between states. The most recent regularly scheduled redistricting took place in 2021. In some states, the process is set by independent commissions but in others the state legislatures are responsible for line-drawing – and the results can frequently be crafted by the party in power to give their side a distinct advantage. In North Carolina, for instance, Republican-drawn lines gave their party 10 of the state's 14 House seats in last year's national elections even though Trump only won the state by a slim margin. Democrats in Illinois hold 14 of the state's 17 House seats, while former Vice-President Kamala Harris won the state with 54%. If Trump has his way, and the maps lead to a five-seat gain next year, Republicans would control 30 of the state's 38 seats. Last year, he won Texas with 56%.
选区通常每十年根据人口普查结果重划。2021年已完成最新一轮重划。部分州由独立委员会操作，其他州则由议会主导——执政党常借机为本党谋利。例如北卡罗来纳州共和党划定的选区，让该党在去年大选中赢得14个席位中的10个，尽管特朗普在该州仅微弱胜出。伊利诺伊州民主党则掌控17席中的14席，而哈里斯在该州得票率54%。若特朗普得逞，德州明年新增5个共和党席位后，该党将控制38席中的30席——去年特朗普在德州得票率56%。
So what could happen next?
后续可能如何发展？
The Republican push in Texas has leaders in Democratic-controlled states calling for a response, which could set off a redistricting"arms race" that spreads across the country. California Governor Gavin Newsom, for example, has asked legislators in his state, where Democrats control 43 of the 52 seats, to find ways to increase their advantage. Governors Kathy Hochul in New York and JB Pritzker in Illinois have issued similar calls."Everything's on the table," Pritzker wrote in a post on social media."We've got to do everything we can to stand up and fight back - we're not sitting around and complaining from the sidelines when we have the ability to stop them."
德州共和党的行动已引发民主党控制州的反弹，可能引发全国性"选区重划军备竞赛"。加州州长纽瑟姆（民主党控制52席中的43席）已要求议会研究扩大优势的方法。纽约州长霍楚和伊利诺伊州长普利兹克也发出类似号召。"所有手段都在考虑范围，"普利兹克在社交媒体发文称，"我们必须全力反击——既然有能力阻止他们，就不能坐视不管。"
Grassroots Democrats, many of whom have been frustrated by the inability of their party's national political leaders to block the Trump administration's policy agenda, may welcome such confrontational language. States like California and New York have laws that mandate congressional districts be drawn by a bipartisan commission to create constituencies that are compact and fair. Such efforts were the result of a push to remove political considerations from the redistricting process, but now some Democrats view those moves as unilateral disarmament that gave Republicans an advantage in the fight for a House majority."I'm tired of fighting this fight with my hand tied behind my back," Hochul told reporters at the New York Capitol in Albany on Monday."With all due respect to the good government groups, politics is a political process." She said the"playing field" has changed dramatically during Trump's second term and Democrats need to adjust.
基层民主党人长期不满本党领袖无力阻挡特朗普议程，可能乐见这种对抗姿态。加州和纽约州原本法律规定由两党委员会公平划区，旨在去政治化。但现在部分民主党人视此为"单方面裁军"，让共和党在争夺众议院多数时占优。"我厌倦绑着双手作战，"霍楚周一在奥尔巴尼对记者表示，"虽然尊重政府改革团体，但政治就是政治。"她称特朗普第二任期已彻底改变"游戏规则"，民主党必须调整。
Democrats may not have the final say, however. Republicans are already looking beyond Texas for more places to pick up seats. Vice-President JD Vance is reported to be considering a trip to Indiana later this week to push for new district lines in that state. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis recently said his Republican-dominated state may undertake a similar process. Despite its explicit political designs, all of this is fair game under the US Constitution – at least the way a narrow majority of the US Supreme Court interpreted it in a landmark 2019 case. Partisan"gerrymandering", as the process is sometimes called, has a long tradition in US politics – one that frequently creates oddly shaped constituencies that stretch for miles to include, or exclude, voters based on their political affiliations, all with the goal of giving one party an electoral majority.
但民主党未必能主导局面。共和党已在德州之外寻找机会，副总统万斯据报将赴印第安纳州推动重划选区。佛州州长德桑蒂斯也表示可能采取类似行动。尽管充满政治算计，这些行为在美国宪法下均属合法——至少最高法院2019年判决认可其合宪性。这种被称为"杰利蝾螈"的党派划区在美国历史悠久，常产生奇形怪状的选区，只为让某党获得选举优势。
The Republican move in Texas isn't even without precedent. In 2003, Republican leaders redrew their congressional maps to boost their electoral advantage. The state's Democrats even responded in a similar way – leaving the state to delay the legislative proceedings. The redistricting ultimately passed after enough Democrats returned. There is a risk in all of this, even for the party doing the line-drawing. While the goal is to maximise the number of seats where victory is probable, in an election where one side outperforms expectations even seemingly safe seats can flip sides. Texas, and other redistricting states, could create an electoral map that does not survive a political deluge, leading to otherwise avoidable losses at the ballot box. In a close election, however, every seat counts. And if next year's midterm elections continue the recent trend of narrowly decided political battles, what happens in state legislatures over the next few months could have dramatic political consequences in Washington DC – and, consequently, across America.
德州共和党的行动早有先例。2003年该党就曾重划选区扩大优势，当时民主党同样采取"逃亡"策略拖延议程，最终仍未能阻止。但重划选区也有风险——即便精心设计，在政治海啸中也可能失效。不过在势均力敌的选举中，每个席位都至关重要。若明年中期选举延续近年胶着态势，未来几个月的州议会角力，或将深刻影响华盛顿乃至全美政治格局。
