不要通过后视镜进行投资

Don’t invest through the rearview mirror
发布时间:2025-07-16 11:58:37    浏览次数:7
【新闻摘要】
如果股市定价像小学数学题那么简单就好了!理想状态下,股票价格=未来所有分红和收益的现值总和,考虑利率、风险系数和个人风险偏好...可惜现实中的股市更像"薛定谔的猫",在你打开账户前,永远不知道是赚是赔。这哪是投资啊,简直是量子力学实践课!

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**I n a more predictable world, stocks would be easy to price.**
在一个更可预测的世界里,股票定价会很简单。

**A share gives its owner claim to a series of cash flows, such as dividends and earnings.**
股票赋予持有者一系列现金流的所有权,例如股息和收益。

**Investors would forecast the future value of each, then discount it to a present value based on prevailing interest rates, the riskiness of the cash flow and their own risk appetite.**
投资者会预测每笔现金流的未来价值,然后根据现行利率、现金流风险程度和个人风险偏好将其折现为现值。

**Add them all up, and that would be the stock’s price.**
将所有现值相加,就是股票的价格。

(翻译说明:
1."cash flows"译为专业术语"现金流"
2."discount it to a present value"译为"折现为现值"保持金融术语准确
3."risk appetite"译为"风险偏好"使用标准金融用语
4. 保留原文假设语气"would be"译为"会"
5. 数学关系表述清晰对应原文逻辑
6. 整体保持金融理论的严谨性与现实反差的幽默感)

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