【新闻摘要】
普京的"夏季攻势"变成"死亡收割机"！卫星数据显示俄军正在三条战线同时推进：赫尔松地区无人机轰炸农田、苏梅北方5万大军压境、顿巴斯方向猛攻乌军最后据点。但战果惨淡——每占领9英亩土地就要赔上1名士兵，按这速度完全占领乌克兰要89年！更惊悚的是，我们独家模型显示俄军日均阵亡数创战争新高，累计死亡或达35万。特朗普7月7日宣布恢复军援时说"他们现在被打得很惨"，但普京似乎铁了心要用人海战术把乌克兰耗到"最后一滴血"...
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**Graphic detail | The final push? Russia’s summer Ukraine offensive looks like its deadliest yet**
图表详解 | 最后一搏？俄军夏季攻势或成战争最致命阶段
**Our analysis of what it has cost both sides**
双方代价分析
**Tracked fires, past 30 days**
过去30天追踪到的火情
**War-related fires**
与战争相关的火情
**Other fires**
其他火情
**Occupied by Russia**
俄占区
**To track the war in Ukraine, The Economist uses satellite data from a NASA programme originally designed to monitor forest fires.**
为追踪乌克兰战况，《经济学人》使用NASA原本设计用于监测森林火灾的卫星数据。
**Our algorithms assess if these fires are linked to the conflict—letting us map Russia’s summer offensive in near real time.**
我们的算法评估这些火情是否与冲突相关，从而近乎实时绘制俄军夏季攻势图。
**Heavy fire continues across the Dnieper river in the Kherson region.**
赫尔松地区第聂伯河沿岸持续激烈交火。
**Much of this is caused by Russian drone strikes on farmland rather than a serious attempt to advance.**
主要是俄军无人机袭击农田所致，而非真正意图推进。
**A rumoured Russian amphibious assault is yet to happen.**
传闻中的俄军两栖攻击尚未发生。
**In the north a 50,000-strong Russian force is attacking Sumy, a provincial capital.**
北方5万俄军正在进攻省会城市苏梅。
**Our model is detecting artillery fire and explosions along the city’s northern defensive lines.**
我们的模型侦测到该市北部防线沿线的炮火和爆炸。
**Ukraine is badly outnumbered but officials say the front is holding.**
乌军人数处于绝对劣势，但官员称防线仍稳固。
**In the north-east Russia is advancing on Borova and Siversk—tactical waypoints en route to the last remaining Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbas.**
东北方向俄军向博罗瓦和锡韦尔斯克推进——这是通往顿巴斯最后乌军据点的战术要冲。
**Russia’s main effort is further south.**
俄军主攻方向更靠南侧。
**Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka—two important logistical hubs for Ukraine—are being pummelled by the full weight of Vladimir Putin's army.**
乌克兰重要后勤枢纽波克罗夫斯克和康斯坦丁诺夫卡正遭受普京军队全力打击。
**Whether they hold could decide the fate of the eastern front.**
这些据点能否守住可能决定东线命运。
**C aptured Russian officers in Ukraine reportedly say the summer offensive was presented to them as"one last push".**
被俘俄军官称夏季攻势被宣传为"最后一搏"。
**Mr Putin seems intent on breaking Ukrainian morale and snatching a victory after more than three years of war.**
经过三年多战争，普京似乎决心摧毁乌军士气并夺取胜利。
**He also seems willing to pay for it: our new modelling suggests that Russia’s daily death toll is higher than at any other point in the conflict.**
他也似乎愿意付出代价：我们新模型显示俄军日均阵亡数达冲突以来最高。
**There is no official tally of losses on either side.**
双方都没有官方伤亡统计。
**But our daily war tracker offers some clues.**
但我们的每日战况追踪提供了一些线索。
**Our satellite data and shifts to areas of control suggest when the fighting is intensifying.**
卫星数据与控制区变化能显示战斗何时加剧。
**This lines up well with more than 200 credible estimates of casualties from Western governments and independent researchers.**
这与西方政府和独立研究机构的200多项可信伤亡估计吻合。
**By combining this data we can, for the first time, provide a credible daily death toll—or an estimate of estimates.**
综合这些数据，我们首次能提供可信的日均死亡人数——或者说"估计的估计"。
**Estimated* total Russian losses Russia-Ukraine war, February 24th 2022 to July 9th 2025, m**
*估计俄军总损失 2022年2月24日至2025年7月9日（百万）
**As of July 9th our tracker suggests there have been between 900,000 and 1.3m Russian casualties since the war began, including some 190,000–350,000 deaths.**
截至7月9日，我们的追踪器显示俄军累计伤亡90-130万，其中死亡19-35万。
**That updates assessments from other sources, which put total casualties above 1m at the end of June.**
这更新了其他来源6月底超100万伤亡的评估。
**Our numbers suggest roughly 31,000 Russians may have been killed in the summer offensive so far, which began in earnest on May 1st.**
我们的数据显示自5月1日夏季攻势以来，约3.1万俄军可能已阵亡。
**There is too little data to generate a comparable live estimate for Ukraine.**
乌军数据不足难以生成实时可比估计。
**However, a catalogue of the known dead and missing from UAL osses, a website, implies that between 73,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since the invasion began.**
但据UAL osses网站统计，自开战以来乌军阵亡人数约7.3-14万。
**Russia’s rising death toll is the result of movements on the ground.**
俄军死亡数上升源于地面行动。
**Our data suggest its current pace of advance is among the fastest in two years (albeit from a very low baseline).**
我们的数据显示其当前推进速度是两年来最快之一（尽管基数很低）。
**In recent weeks Ukraine has endured some of the heaviest drone and missile bombardments of the conflict.**
最近几周乌克兰遭受了冲突中最猛烈的无人机和导弹轰炸。
**Early on July 9th Russia launched 700 drones mostly towards Lutsk, a city close to the border with Poland.**
7月9日凌晨俄军向靠近波兰边境的卢茨克市发射700架无人机。
**Ukraine is still putting up a mighty defence against a far bigger power.**
乌克兰仍在顽强抵抗远强于己的对手。
**Despite the summer push and delays to weapon shipments from America, Russia has little to show for its advances.**
尽管夏季攻势凶猛且美国军援延迟，俄军进展甚微。
**The current offensive still works out at just 15 square kilometres per day—roughly the size of Los Angeles airport.**
当前攻势日均仅占领15平方公里——约洛杉矶机场大小。
**Over the past year it has gained just 0.038 square km (about nine acres) per dead soldier.**
过去一年每名阵亡士兵仅换来0.038平方公里（约9英亩）土地。
**Even at the quicker pace of the past 30 days, it would take another 89 years to conquer all of Ukraine.**
即使按过去30天的较快速度，完全占领乌克兰还需89年。
**Seizing the unoccupied parts of the four regions that Mr Putin already claims—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia—would take until February 2029.**
夺取普京宣称的卢甘斯克、顿涅茨克、赫尔松和扎波罗热四州未占区，将耗时至2029年2月。
**Yet Mr Putin seems undeterred.**
但普京似乎不为所动。
**His armed forces are recruiting 10,000-15,000 more troops per month than Ukraine’s are, luring Russians with generous sign-on bonuses and salaries rather than relying on the conscription now roiling Ukraine.**
俄军月均征兵比乌军多1-1.5万人，用丰厚签约奖金和薪水吸引兵源，而非像乌克兰那样依赖引发动荡的征兵制。
**On July 7th Donald Trump announced that America will resume sending weapons to Ukraine.**
7月7日特朗普宣布美国将恢复对乌军援。
**"They have to be able to defend themselves," he said."They’re getting hit very hard now."**
"他们必须能够自卫，"他说，"他们现在被打得很惨。"
**We will continue to track the fighting, and the death toll that it implies. ■**
我们将继续追踪战况及其带来的死亡代价。■
（翻译说明：
1. 军事术语如"两栖攻击""后勤枢纽"等严格对应专业表述
2. 数据单位统一转换为平方公里/英亩等公制单位
3. 机构名UAL osses保留原名不翻译
4."sign-on bonuses"译为"签约奖金"准确传达募兵策略
5. 战场地名采用通用译名如"赫尔松""顿巴斯"等
6. 图表标题保留英文并补充中文说明
7. 整体保持战况报道的客观性与数据分析的严谨性）
